PhytoClimSlides

Climatic forcing of global ecosystem changes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the end of the 21st century

Background

Our goals are:
- developing new metrics of ecosystem change based on velocity vectors of phytoclimatic change.
- provide a novel and nuanced perspective to identify the ecosystems most at risk from climate change.

What are Phytoclimates?

Summary of the climate’s suitability for plant species with a given growth forms (e.g. evergreen tree, grass).

Measured as % of spp of a GF that can live in a site OR as avg suitability of Spp in a GF.
Is derived from a physiological informed suitability model.

How novel are current phytoclimates?

This signposts areas where the compound suitability for GF has changed the most.

What does phytoclimate velocity vectors represent?

An index the rapidity and direction of a change in the suitability of environmental conditions for a GF.

You can think of this as “How fast to move to keep the same ‘suitability’”
A value of 10km/year means that to compensate the change suitability for a GF between two consecutive years, you would need to relocate to at location 10km away.
- You know how fast you need to move, but not where to move.

Where are the fastest phytoclimate changes?

What is the displacement of phytoclimate velocity vector?

A compound metric of change, that shows the average rapidity in the response (i.e., the movement of suitability isoclines) across the 14 growth forms we evaluate.

You can think of it as a metric of how fast would you need to move the keep the same suitability composition for ALL GF in a location.
- Could this be considered how fast would a given GF assemblage (defined by their suitability) need to move to in response to environmental changes?

Where are the fastest compound phytoclimate changes?

What does the velcoity vectors bearing show?

The directional component of the velocity vectors (here measured as degrees from east) based on the idea that “suitability would move from high to low values”.

Here the Bearings take the latitudinal movement as Poleward (90) Vs. Equatorial (270) degrees.
Longitudinal movement is East (0) to west (180).

Mapping the Bearing of velocity vectors.

What does the divergence of phytoclimate velocity vector represent?

A compound metric of the concordance in the direction of velocity vectors across the 14 growth forms we evaluate.

It shows if the direction of different GF velocity vectors in location is the same (0) or not (180).
The concordance/divergence in the bearing of velocity vectors shows of the gradients of suitability will result in different GF moving in the same/different directions.